1997: Science what we don't know (Mobil)
Adopting quick-fix measures at this point could pose grave economic risks for the world.
As the debate over climate change heats up, science is being up-staged by the call for solutions. At stake is a complex issue with many questions. Some things we know for certain. Others are far from certain.
First, we know greenhouse gases account for less than one percent of Earth's atmosphere. The ability of these gases to trap heat and warm Earth is an important part of the climate system because it makes our planet habitable. Greenhouse gases consist largely of water vapor, with smaller amounts of carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane and nitrous oxide and traces of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs).
The focus of concern is CO₂. While most of the CO, emitted by far is the result of natural phenomena namely respiration and decomposition, most attention has centered on the three to four percent related to human activities-burning of fossil fuels, deforestation. The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has risen in the last 100 years, leading scientists to conclude that the increase is a result of man-made activities.
Although the linkage between the greenhouse gases and global warming is one factor, other variables could be much more important in the climate system than emissions produced by man.
The UN sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) thought it had found the magic bullet when it concluded that the one-degree Fahrenheit rise in global temperatures over the past century may bear a "fingerprint" of human activity. The fingerprint soon blurred when an IPCC lead author conceded to the "uncertainty inherent in computer climate modeling."
Nonetheless, nations at Kyoto are being asked to embrace proposals that could have potentially huge impacts on economies and lifestyles. Nations are being urged to cut emissions without knowing either the severity of the problem - that is, will Earth's temperature increase over the next 50-100 years? - or the efficacy of the solution - will cutting CO₂ emissions reduce the problem?
Within a decade. science is likely to provide more answers on what factors affect global warming, there - by improving our decision-making. We just don't have this information today.
Answers to questions on climate change will require more reliable. measurements of temperature at many places on Earth, better understanding of clouds and ocean currents along with greater computer power.
This process shouldn't be short-circuited to satisfy an artificial deadline, like the conference in Kyoto. Whatever effect increased concentrations of man-made gases may have, it will develop slowly over decades. Thus, there is time for scientists to refine their understanding of the climate system, while governments, industry and the public work to find practical means to control greenhouse gases, if such measures are called for.
Adopting quick-fix measures at this point could pose grave economic risks for the world.
Who: Mobil
Advert: New York Times, 1997
Methane: 1754.48 ppb
Source: Geoffrey Supran & Naomi Oreskes
